Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
CRAwayColorado Rockies16%
@DTHomeDetroit Tigers84%
Model PickDetroit Tigers 84%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects an 84% win probability for the Detroit Tigers, indicating a significant advantage over the Colorado Rockies. This prediction is primarily driven by the Tigers' superior 'Team ERA' and 'Pythagorean Expectation'. However, with no market edge calculated, the precise value of this pick remains unquantified.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 84% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+5.6
Season Win%+1.6
Last 10 Games Form+3.6
Home/Away Split+2.2
Team OBP-1
Team SLG-1.2
Team ERA+12.6
Team WHIP+5.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup+2.9
Baseline 50% → final home win84%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Detroit Tigers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 54.6% (658 RS/595 RA) vs Away 40.5% (695/857) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 69-79 (.466) vs Away 55-93 (.372) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 3-7 · Home W3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 38-36 · away team away 25-52 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .316 vs Away .323 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .399 vs Away .416 (OPS .715/.739) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.67 vs Away 5.55 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.22 vs Away 1.53 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Jackson Jobe (ERA 4.45) vs Away Gabriel Hughes (ERA 5.81) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .287 · K 1288 · BB 519 / Away BABIP .306 · K 1296 · BB 469 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.56 · HR9 1.05 / Away K/BB 2.04 · HR9 1.39 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rockies' Blown Leads
The Colorado Rockies have been blowing multiple leads, most recently falling 11-7 to the Detroit Tigers, extending their losing streak.
Basis: LLM · news · Heartbreak continues as the Rockies blow multiple
Qualitative · Tigers' Winning Streak
The Detroit Tigers are on a three-game winning streak, including an 11-7 victory over the Rockies where they exploded for 7 runs in the 8th inning.
Basis: LLM · news · Tigers explode for 7 runs in 8th inning vs Rockies
Qualitative · Home Series Opener
The Detroit Tigers are welcoming the Colorado Rockies to Detroit for a three-game weekend series, which could provide a home-field advantage.
Basis: LLM · news · Tigers welcome Rockies to Detroit for 3-game weeke
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 13, 2026)
- Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers: Game Highlights
- How to watch Rockies vs. Tigers: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- Heartbreak continues as the Rockies blow multiple leads, falling to the Tigers 11-7
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers game discussion: Mason Adams vs. Framber Valdez
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers: Game preview, picks and props for Saturday
- Tigers welcome Rockies to Detroit for 3-game weekend series
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Detroit Tigers a 84% chance to win (Home 84% · Away 16%). MLB · 2026-09-14 01:10 KST.
How was the 84% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 84%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.