San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres52%
@SFGHomeSan Francisco Giants48%
Model PickSan Diego Padres 52%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend backing the San Diego Padres with a 52% model probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary driver for this pick is the significant advantage in the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup (deltaPct 7.7)' factor, while the main swing risk lies in the deficit shown in 'Team ERA (deltaPct -4.1)'. Although our model honestly acknowledges its long-term inability to beat the market, the starting pitching edge points toward a Padres victory.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 48% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.6
Season Win%-2.1
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+0.4
Team OBP-0.9
Team SLG+1.3
Team ERA-4.1
Team WHIP-1.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+7.7
Baseline 50% → final home win48%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Francisco Giants at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 44.9% (622 RS/696 RA) vs Away 51.4% (626/607) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 62-86 (.419) vs Away 79-68 (.537) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 7-3 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 36-37 · away team away 33-39 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .309 vs Away .315 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .407 vs Away .389 (OPS .716/.704) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.36 vs Away 3.89 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.36 vs Away 1.28 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Cesar Perdomo (ERA 0.90) vs Away Michael King (ERA 3.00) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .290 · K 1188 · BB 412 / Away BABIP .281 · K 1186 · BB 509 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.01 · HR9 0.96 / Away K/BB 2.40 · HR9 1.11 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Padres' Winning Streak
The San Diego Padres are currently on a five-game winning streak, which could significantly boost team morale and performance heading into this matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · Padres hold on to beat Giants, extend win streak t
Qualitative · Season Series Finale
This game is part of the final series between the Giants and Padres this season, potentially adding extra motivation for both teams to finish strong against a division rival.
Basis: LLM · news · The last Giants-Padres series of the season
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- How to watch San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
- San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: Game Highlights
- How to watch Padres vs. Giants: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- Padres hold on to beat Giants, extend win streak to five
- Game 147: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
- Padres bring 5-game win streak into matchup with the Giants
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego Padres a 52% chance to win (Home 48% · Away 52%). MLB · 2026-09-13 05:05 KST.
How was the 48% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 48%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.