Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
PPAwayPhiladelphia Phillies38%
@ABHomeAtlanta Braves62%
Model PickAtlanta Braves 62%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project an Atlanta Braves victory with a 62% probability. The primary drivers for this pick are '팀 평균자책(ERA)' and '홈 어드밴티지', while the main swing risk lies in the negative impact of '팀 출루율(OBP)'. Given that the edge against the market is uncalculated and our model does not beat the market in the long run, a cautious approach is advised.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 62% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+2.2
Season Win%+0.6
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split+1.2
Team OBP-0.3
Team SLG+0.7
Team ERA+3.4
Team WHIP+0.7
Baseline 50% → final home win62.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Atlanta Braves at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 58.1% (677 RS/566 RA) vs Away 52.5% (664/628) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 87-61 (.588) vs Away 82-66 (.554) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 50-26 · away team away 41-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .309 vs Away .311 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .409 vs Away .399 (OPS .718/.710) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.57 vs Away 3.98 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.24 vs Away 1.27 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tyler Mahle (ERA 4.05) vs Away TBD (ERA ?) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .285 · K 1194 · BB 422 / Away BABIP .284 · K 1229 · BB 468 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.52 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 3.27 · HR9 1.20 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Walk-off Loss Hangover
The Philadelphia Phillies suffered a walk-off loss in the 11th inning against the Atlanta Braves yesterday, which could negatively impact team morale and focus for today's game.
Basis: LLM · news · Braves Walk Off Phillies in 11th
Qualitative · Intense Division Race
The Braves and Phillies are locked in MLB's most intriguing playoff race, with the Braves holding a five-game lead. This intense divisional battle will fuel both teams with high stakes and motivation.
Basis: LLM · news · Braves Take Five-Game Lead
Qualitative · Acuña's Villain Role
Ronald Acuña Jr. relished the boos from Phillies fans, embracing his villain role with an epic home run. This could either motivate the Phillies for revenge or add psychological pressure.
Basis: LLM · news · Acuña relishes boos from Phillies fans as he gets
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Game Highlights
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- Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 11, 2026)
- How to watch Phillies vs. Braves: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- 4 Biggest Phillies Takeaways From Series With Braves
- What channel are the Phillies on tonight? What channel are the Braves on?
- Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Odds, Spread, and Total
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Atlanta Braves a 62% chance to win (Home 62% · Away 38%). MLB · 2026-09-13 08:15 KST.
How was the 62.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 62.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.