New York Mets @ New York Yankees
NYMAwayNew York Mets26%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees74%
Model PickNew York Yankees 74%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 74% win probability, recommending a bet on the Yankees. This forecast is primarily driven by the Yankees' superior 'Team ERA' and 'Pythagorean Expectation'. However, with no calculated edge against the market, it's unclear if this pick offers value.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Mets vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 74% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+5.1
Season Win%+2
Home/Away Split+1.2
Team OBP+0.6
Team SLG+1.1
Team ERA+7.9
Team WHIP+3
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win73.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.9% (673 RS/540 RA) vs Away 47.1% (631/673) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 85-62 (.578) vs Away 68-79 (.463) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 7-3 · Home W4 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 41-31 · away team away 34-39 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .313 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .410 vs Away .394 (OPS .723/.703) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.20 vs Away 4.21 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.31 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.41) vs Away Zac Thornton (ERA 3.53) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .281 · K 1347 · BB 528 / Away BABIP .280 · K 1241 · BB 475 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.98 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.58 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · 9/11 Commemoration Game
Both the Yankees and Mets are playing on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, which could provide unique emotional motivation for the players.
Basis: LLM · news · 25th anniversary of 9/11; commemorate; remember 9/
Qualitative · Subway Series Rivalry
The Subway Series between the New York Yankees and New York Mets is a fierce local rivalry, often leading to heightened intensity and focus from players compared to regular games.
Basis: LLM · news · Subway Series; Mets vs. Yankees; rivalry
Qualitative · Mets' Urgency to Rebound
The Mets lost the opening game of the Subway Series to the Yankees, so they'll be highly motivated to snap their losing streak and turn the tide in the next game.
Basis: LLM · news · Mets get into trouble early and fall to Yankees in
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Mets at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- How to watch Mets vs. Yankees: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- New York Mets vs New York Yankees Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- What channel is Yankees vs. Mets on today? Time, TV schedule, live stream to watch 9/11 anniversary game
- Mets vs. Yankees: Who has edge in latest Subway Series matchup?
- Yankees commemorate 25th anniversary of 9/11
- Mets get into trouble early and fall to Yankees in Subway Series opener
- New York Mets at New York Yankees - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 12, 2026)
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Mets vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 74% chance to win (Home 74% · Away 26%). MLB · 2026-09-13 02:35 KST.
How was the 73.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 73.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.