Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers71%
@MMHomeMiami Marlins29%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 71%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a Los Angeles Dodgers victory with a 71% probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. While 'Home Advantage' offers a minor positive delta, major indicators such as 'Last 10 Games Form' and 'Pythagorean Expectation' present negative deltas that warrant caution. A key swing risk lies in the Dodgers' lineup adjustments, specifically with Freddie Freeman sidelined due to injury.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 29% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.7
Season Win%-2.2
Last 10 Games Form-6.1
Home/Away Split-0.4
Team OBP-1.4
Team SLG-1.5
Team ERA-3.6
Team WHIP-2.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup-1.2
Baseline 50% → final home win28.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Miami Marlins at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.2% (656 RS/653 RA) vs Away 62.1% (734/561) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 72-76 (.486) vs Away 90-57 (.612) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 8-2 · Home L4 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 43-33 · away team away 43-29 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .327 vs Away .337 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .401 vs Away .422 (OPS .728/.759) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.11 vs Away 3.65 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.28 vs Away 1.16 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.51) vs Away Tyler Glasnow (ERA 3.12) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .299 · K 1218 · BB 508 / Away BABIP .298 · K 1160 · BB 562 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.33 · HR9 1.04 / Away K/BB 3.02 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Dodgers' Win Streak
The Dodgers are riding high, extending their winning streak to eight games with a 6-2 victory over the Marlins, fueled by Kyle Tucker's grand slam.
Basis: LLM · news · 8th straight win
Qualitative · Marlins' Losing Skid Pressure
The Marlins are under immense pressure to recover after a brutal losing stretch against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Basis: LLM · news · BRUTAL Losing Stretch Against Los Angeles Dodgers
Qualitative · Freeman Out with Injury
Key Dodgers player Freddie Freeman is out of the lineup due to injury, with Josue De Paula starting in his place.
Basis: LLM · news · Freddie Freeman Out With Injury
Qualitative · De Paula's Starting Debut
With Freddie Freeman injured, the Dodgers are making a lineup change, inserting rookie Josue De Paula into the starting lineup.
Basis: LLM · news · Josue De Paula Starting
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- Dodgers Lineup vs Marlins: Josue De Paula Starting, Freddie Freeman Out With Injury
- Dodgers vs. Marlins (Sep 11, 2026) Pregame
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 11, 2026)
- How to watch Dodgers vs. Marlins: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- Kyle Tucker's grand slam helps Dodgers beat Marlins 6-2 for 8th straight win
- Kyle Tucker's grand slam helps Dodgers beat Marlins 6-2 for 8th straight win
- Dodgers on Deck: Saturday, September 12 at Marlins
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 71% chance to win (Home 29% · Away 71%). MLB · 2026-09-13 05:10 KST.
How was the 28.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 28.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.