Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
CRAwayColorado Rockies18%
@DTHomeDetroit Tigers82%
Model PickDetroit Tigers 82%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects an 82% win probability for the Detroit Tigers, indicating a significant advantage over the Colorado Rockies. The primary drivers for this prediction are the Tigers' dominant 'Team ERA' and superior 'Pythagorean Expectation'. With no market edge calculated, the value of this pick against the market remains uncertain.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 82% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+5.4
Season Win%+1.5
Last 10 Games Form+2.4
Home/Away Split+2.1
Team OBP-1.1
Team SLG-1.3
Team ERA+12.9
Team WHIP+5.3
Starting Pitcher Matchup+2.4
Baseline 50% → final home win82.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Detroit Tigers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 54.4% (647 RS/588 RA) vs Away 40.7% (688/846) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 68-79 (.463) vs Away 55-92 (.374) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 3-7 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 37-36 · away team away 25-51 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .314 vs Away .322 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .396 vs Away .414 (OPS .710/.736) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.65 vs Away 5.51 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.22 vs Away 1.52 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Andrew Sears (ERA 4.38) vs Away Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.40) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .285 · K 1280 · BB 512 / Away BABIP .306 · K 1287 · BB 467 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.56 · HR9 1.04 / Away K/BB 2.06 · HR9 1.39 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rockies' Losing Streak Pressure
The Rockies are currently on a five-game losing streak, which could significantly impact team morale and player psychology, affecting the outcome of this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies to fifth consecutive loss
Qualitative · Rockies Bullpen Collapse
The Rockies' bullpen collapsed in the previous game, squandering a strong start from their pitcher. This raises concerns about their bullpen's reliability in the upcoming match.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies bullpen collapse spoils Mason Adams start
Qualitative · Tigers' Hot Batters
Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, and Max Clark all slugged homers in the Tigers' last win. Their current hot streak at the plate could carry over into this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Max Clark slug Tiger
Qualitative · Rockies: League's Worst
The Rockies are the NL's worst team, which negatively impacts their overall strength and morale, potentially putting them at a disadvantage in this game.
Basis: LLM · news · NL-worst Colorado Rockies
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/11/2026
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers game discussion: Mason Adams vs. Framber Valdez
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 11, 2026)
- Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers: Game Highlights
- How to watch Rockies vs. Tigers: TV channel and streaming options for September 11
- Tigers welcome Rockies to Detroit for 3-game weekend series
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers: Game preview, picks and player props for Friday
- Photos: Best photos as Detroit Tigers host NL-worst Colorado Rockies at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sept. 11-13, 2026. See link below ⬇️ 📸 Lon Horwedel, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Detroit Tigers a 82% chance to win (Home 82% · Away 18%). MLB · 2026-09-13 02:10 KST.
How was the 82.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 82.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.