New York Mets @ New York Yankees
NYMAwayNew York Mets27%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees73%
Model PickNew York Yankees 73%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees as the pick with a 73% win probability for this Subway Series matchup. The primary drivers supporting this prediction are '팀 평균자책(ERA)' and '피타고리안 기대승률', which heavily favor the Yankees. However, a slight disadvantage in the '선발 매치업' (deltaPct -0.1) serves as the key swing risk, and while the edge against the market is uncalculated, we transparently acknowledge that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Mets vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 73% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+5
Season Win%+1.9
Home/Away Split+1.1
Team OBP+0.4
Team SLG+1.1
Team ERA+7.8
Team WHIP+3.1
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win72.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.9% (667 RS/536 RA) vs Away 47.2% (627/667) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 84-62 (.575) vs Away 68-78 (.466) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 7-3 · Home W3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 40-31 · away team away 34-38 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .312 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .409 vs Away .394 (OPS .721/.703) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.20 vs Away 4.19 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.31 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Carlos Rodón (ERA 3.09) vs Away Nolan McLean (ERA 3.06) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 1340 · BB 527 / Away BABIP .280 · K 1232 · BB 470 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.99 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.57 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Mets Rookie Pitcher Promotion
The Mets have called up a 23-year-old rookie pitcher right before the Yankees series. This signals a strategic shift for the team, and the rookie's performance could significantly impact the game.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Mets Quickly Promote 23-Year-Old Pitcher
Qualitative · 9/11 Commemoration Game
MLB is commemorating the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with tributes and service. This could emotionally motivate players, especially those on the New York-based Mets and Yankees, adding a unique layer to the game.
Basis: LLM · news · MLB to mark 25th anniversary of 9/11 with tributes
Qualitative · Mets Release Two Players
The Mets released two players just before the Yankees series. This could impact team morale, chemistry, and lineup stability, potentially affecting their performance.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Mets Announce Release of 2 Players Before
Qualitative · Mets' Momentum from Sweep
The Mets are coming off a sweep against the Marlins, carrying strong momentum. This boost in team morale and confidence could positively influence their performance against the Yankees.
Basis: LLM · news · Mets hold on for sweep of Marlins in 29-run, 35-hi
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Mets Quickly Promote 23-Year-Old Pitcher Before Yankees Series
- New York Mets at New York Yankees Preview - 09/11/2026
- New York Mets at New York Yankees - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 11, 2026)
- Watch New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
- Mets vs. Yankees: Who has edge in latest Subway Series matchup?
- Yankees host the Mets to open 3-game series
- MLB to mark 25th anniversary of 9/11 with tributes, service
- New York Mets Announce Release of 2 Players Before Yankees Series
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Mets vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 73% chance to win (Home 73% · Away 27%). MLB · 2026-09-12 08:05 KST.
How was the 72.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 72.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.