Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
CRAwayColorado Rockies22%
@DTHomeDetroit Tigers78%
Model PickDetroit Tigers 78%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 78% win probability for the Detroit Tigers, with the edge against the market uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the Tigers' significant advantages in 'Team ERA' and 'Team WHIP'. However, a key swing risk lies in 'Team SLG' and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup', where the Rockies hold a slight edge that could disrupt the game if Detroit's pitching falters.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 78% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+5.2
Season Win%+1.4
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split+2
Team OBP-1.1
Team SLG-1.4
Team ERA+13.3
Team WHIP+5.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.6
Baseline 50% → final home win77.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Detroit Tigers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 54.1% (641 RS/586 RA) vs Away 40.8% (686/840) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 67-79 (.459) vs Away 55-91 (.377) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 3-7 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 36-36 · away team away 25-50 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .314 vs Away .322 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .395 vs Away .415 (OPS .709/.737) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.67 vs Away 5.50 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.22 vs Away 1.52 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Framber Valdez (ERA 4.17) vs Away Mason Adams (ERA 3.95) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .286 · K 1275 · BB 506 / Away BABIP .306 · K 1282 · BB 465 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.56 · HR9 1.05 / Away K/BB 2.07 · HR9 1.39 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rockies' Losing Streak Pressure
The Rockies are currently struggling, and the Tigers are looking to extend their misery, which could put significant psychological pressure on the Rockies to break their losing streak.
Basis: LLM · news · Tigers aim to extend Rockies’ misery
Qualitative · Young Tigers' Batting Surge
The young Tigers lineup has been on a roll, recently winning games with home runs and walks, showing strong offensive momentum.
Basis: LLM · news · Colt Keith homers as young Tigers lineup beats str
Qualitative · Valdez Dominates Rockies
Tigers' starting pitcher Framber Valdez has historically performed well against the Rockies, which could create a psychological hurdle for Rockies hitters.
Basis: LLM · news · Framber Valdez, Tigers aim to extend Rockies’ mise
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 11, 2026)
- Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers Preview - 09/11/2026
- Rockies vs. Tigers (Sep 11, 2026) Pregame
- Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers - Live Score - September 11, 2026
- Thursday Rockpile: Something to look forward to in each remaining Rockies series
- Framber Valdez, Tigers aim to extend Rockies’ misery
- Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies Series Sept. 11-13: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions
- Detroit Tigers Star Max Clark Sends Out 3-Word Post
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Detroit Tigers a 78% chance to win (Home 78% · Away 22%). MLB · 2026-09-12 07:40 KST.
How was the 77.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 77.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.