Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
CRAwayColorado Rockies10%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees90%
Model PickNew York Yankees 90%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model heavily favors the New York Yankees with a 90% win probability, primarily driven by their significant advantages in 'Team ERA' and 'Pythagorean Expectation'. A key risk factor is the Yankees' comparatively lower 'Team OBP' and 'Team SLG'. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 90% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+7.2
Season Win%+3.2
Last 10 Games Form+4.5
Home/Away Split+2.4
Team OBP-1.3
Team SLG-0.5
Team ERA+11.5
Team WHIP+5.3
Starting Pitcher Matchup+5.2
Baseline 50% → final home win89.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.5% (657 RS/533 RA) vs Away 41.2% (683/830) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 83-62 (.572) vs Away 55-90 (.379) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 3-7 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 39-31 · away team away 25-49 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .312 vs Away .322 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .408 vs Away .416 (OPS .720/.738) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.21 vs Away 5.47 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.52 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Max Fried (ERA 2.73) vs Away Ryan Feltner (ERA 5.91) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 1335 · BB 522 / Away BABIP .306 · K 1270 · BB 460 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.00 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.08 · HR9 1.38 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Judge's Return Boosts Lineup
Aaron Judge went hitless in his return from injury, but his mere presence in the lineup can significantly bolster the Yankees' offense.
Basis: LLM · news · Judge hitless in return
Qualitative · Yankees Secure Winning Season
The Yankees clinched their 34th consecutive winning season, which could provide a significant morale boost for the entire team.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees clinch 34th straight winning season
Qualitative · Rockies' Offense Stagnant
Despite out-homering the Yankees in a recent game, the Rockies still fell short in total runs scored, indicating a struggling offense.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies out-homer Yankees 2-1 but get out-scored 5
Qualitative · Rockies Grand Slam Allowed
The Rockies gave up a grand slam in the third inning of a recent game, exposing a vulnerability to big innings and high-scoring plays.
Basis: LLM · news · A third-inning grand slam sinks Rockies
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/08/2026
- Rockies out-homer Yankees 2-1 but get out-scored 5-3
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees: Game Highlights
- How to watch Rockies vs. Yankees: TV channel and streaming options for September 9
- New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies: Series Preview
- Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 10, 2026)
- Judge hitless in return but Yankees clinch 34th straight winning season with 5-3 win over Rockies
- Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/09/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 90% chance to win (Home 90% · Away 10%). MLB · 2026-09-11 08:05 KST.
How was the 89.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 89.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.