Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
CRAwayColorado Rockies14%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees86%
Model PickNew York Yankees 86%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a New York Yankees victory with an 86% model probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the significant pitching advantages reflected in '팀 평균자책(ERA)' and '팀 WHIP'. However, the key swing risk lies in the Yankees' slight offensive disadvantages in '팀 출루율(OBP)' and '팀 장타율(SLG)'.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 86% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+7
Season Win%+3.1
Last 10 Games Form+3.4
Home/Away Split+2.3
Team OBP-1.4
Team SLG-0.6
Team ERA+11.9
Team WHIP+5.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+2
Baseline 50% → final home win85.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.1% (651 RS/532 RA) vs Away 41.4% (682/824) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 82-62 (.569) vs Away 55-89 (.382) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 3-7 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 38-31 · away team away 25-48 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .312 vs Away .323 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .407 vs Away .416 (OPS .719/.739) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.22 vs Away 5.46 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.52 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Will Warren (ERA 4.16) vs Away Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 5.19) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .281 · K 1329 · BB 519 / Away BABIP .306 · K 1259 · BB 457 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.99 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.08 · HR9 1.37 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Judge's Rust
Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 in his return from injury, suggesting he might still be shaking off some rust at the plate.
Basis: LLM · news · Aaron Judge returns, finishes 0-for-3
Qualitative · Yankees Clinch Winning Season
The Yankees secured their 34th consecutive winning season with a victory over the Rockies, which could provide a morale boost for the team.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees clinch 34th straight winning season
Qualitative · Rockies' Homer Disadvantage
Despite out-homering the Yankees 2-1, the Rockies still lost 5-3, which might indicate issues with situational hitting or bullpen performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies out-homer Yankees 2-1 but get out-scored 5
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/08/2026
- How to Watch Game 1 of Yankees' Series vs. Rockies (Time, Channel, Starting Lineup & More)
- New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies: Series Preview
- How to watch Rockies vs. Yankees: TV channel and streaming options for September 8
- Aaron Judge returns, finishes 0-for-3 in Yankees' victory
- Aaron Judge returns tonight: Where to watch Rockies vs. Yankees free live stream
- Rockies out-homer Yankees 2-1 but get out-scored 5-3
- Judge hitless in return but Yankees clinch 34th straight winning season with 5-3 win over Rockies
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 86% chance to win (Home 86% · Away 14%). MLB · 2026-09-10 08:05 KST.
How was the 85.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 85.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.