Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
CGAwayCleveland Guardians59%
@BOHomeBaltimore Orioles41%
Model PickCleveland Guardians 59%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project the Cleveland Guardians as the pick with a 59% win probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary support for Cleveland comes from '팀 장타율(SLG)', complemented by a positive '팀 출루율(OBP)'. However, the significant negative delta in '최근 10경기 폼' and '팀 평균자책(ERA)' remains the key swing risk for this matchup.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 41% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-0.5
Season Win%-0.5
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split-0.8
Team OBP+0.3
Team SLG+1.6
Team ERA-3.2
Team WHIP-2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-2.4
Baseline 50% → final home win41.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Baltimore Orioles at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 47.9% (652 RS/683 RA) vs Away 49.1% (593/605) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 70-76 (.479) vs Away 74-72 (.507) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 6-4 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 35-39 · away team away 38-33 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .316 vs Away .314 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .394 vs Away .372 (OPS .710/.686) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.14 vs Away 3.77 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.34 vs Away 1.26 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Shane Baz (ERA 3.91) vs Away Foster Griffin (ERA 3.26) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .285 · K 1351 · BB 541 / Away BABIP .282 · K 1167 · BB 516 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.43 · HR9 1.07 / Away K/BB 2.84 · HR9 1.12 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/07/2026
- How to watch Guardians vs. Orioles: TV channel and streaming options for September 8
- Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles starting lineups for Sept. 8, 2026: Game No. 146
- Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 08, 2026)
- Guardians Reveal Lineup For Massive Second Game vs Orioles
- Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/08/2026
- How to watch Guardians vs. Orioles: TV channel and streaming options for September 7
- Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles starting lineups for Sept. 7, 2026: Game 145
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Cleveland Guardians a 59% chance to win (Home 41% · Away 59%). MLB · 2026-09-10 07:35 KST.
How was the 41.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 41.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.