Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
CRAwayColorado Rockies10%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees90%
Model PickNew York Yankees 90%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 90% win probability for the New York Yankees, indicating a significant advantage over the Colorado Rockies. This prediction is primarily driven by the Yankees' superior 'Team ERA' and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup,' alongside a strong 'Pythagorean Expectation.' However, with the market edge currently uncalculated, further analysis is needed to assess betting value.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 90% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+6.9
Season Win%+3
Last 10 Games Form+3.4
Home/Away Split+2.2
Team OBP-1.7
Team SLG-0.7
Team ERA+12.1
Team WHIP+5.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+6.8
Baseline 50% → final home win90%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.0% (646 RS/529 RA) vs Away 41.5% (679/819) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 81-62 (.566) vs Away 55-88 (.385) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 3-7 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 37-31 · away team away 25-47 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .311 vs Away .324 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .406 vs Away .417 (OPS .717/.741) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.23 vs Away 5.47 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.17 vs Away 1.52 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Cam Schlittler (ERA 2.04) vs Away Gabriel Hughes (ERA 6.19) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 1319 · BB 516 / Away BABIP .307 · K 1246 · BB 456 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.97 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.08 · HR9 1.37 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Judge's Return, Morale Boost
Aaron Judge has been activated from the 60-day injured list and rejoined the team. This could significantly boost team morale and offensive power.
Basis: LLM · news · Aaron Judge, out since May 31, activated by New Yo
Qualitative · Rotation Shake-up
The Yankees have made rotation decisions ahead of the Rockies series, which could impact pitching stability or strategy.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees Announce Rotation Decisions Ahead of Rocki
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Preview - 09/08/2026
- Aaron Judge, out since May 31, activated by New York Yankees
- Yankees Announce Starting Pitchers for Rockies Series (A Big Start for Will Warren)
- Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 08, 2026)
- Yankees Announce Rotation Decisions Ahead of Rockies Series
- Aaron Judge back in uniform as Yankees host Rockies
- Colorado Rockies After Dark: What are your Rockies hopes and dreams vs. the Yankees?
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees - Live Score - September 08, 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 90% chance to win (Home 90% · Away 10%). MLB · 2026-09-09 08:05 KST.
How was the 90% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 90%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.