New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
NYMAwayNew York Mets44%
@CGHomeCleveland Guardians56%
Model PickCleveland Guardians 56%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Cleveland Guardians at 56% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Team ERA, Home Advantage, offset by Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 56% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.1
Season Win%+1.2
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split+0.7
Team OBP+1.3
Team SLG-1
Team ERA+2.9
Team WHIP+0.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win56.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Cleveland Guardians at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 47.9% (453 RS/474 RA) vs Away 45.1% (469/522) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 57-58 (.496) vs Away 49-66 (.426) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 6-4 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 28-30 · away team away 24-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .312 vs Away .303 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .369 vs Away .383 (OPS .681/.686) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.74 vs Away 4.07 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Foster Griffin (ERA 3.06) vs Away Nolan McLean (ERA 3.29) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 957 · BB 418 / Away BABIP .274 · K 978 · BB 365 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.87 · HR9 1.15 / Away K/BB 2.57 · HR9 1.09 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for August 4
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: Game Highlights
- New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/05/2026
- Guardians score tonight vs. Mets. How Cleveland's offense flopped
- NY Mets defeat Cleveland Guardians. See top game photos
- When will All-Star pitcher Foster Griffin make his Guardians debut?
- Guardians score, recap vs. Mets as Angel Genao makes MLB debut in loss
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Cleveland Guardians a 56% chance to win (Home 56% · Away 44%). MLB · 2026-08-07 02:10 KST.
How was the 56.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 56.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.