Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
LAAAwayLos Angeles Angels21%
@BOHomeBaltimore Orioles79%
Model PickBaltimore Orioles 79%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Baltimore Orioles at 79% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Starting Pitcher Matchup, Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 79% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.8
Season Win%+2
Last 10 Games Form+4.8
Home/Away Split+2.4
Team OBP+1
Team SLG+0.8
Team ERA+2.2
Team WHIP+0.4
Starting Pitcher Matchup+11.5
Baseline 50% → final home win79.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Baltimore Orioles at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 47.4% (515 RS/545 RA) vs Away 43.0% (473/552) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-58 (.491) vs Away 43-71 (.377) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 2-8 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-29 · away team away 18-38 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .319 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .392 vs Away .381 (OPS .711/.693) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.21 vs Away 4.49 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.34 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Brandon Young (ERA 3.31) vs Away Ryan Johnson (ERA 7.63) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .288 · K 1050 · BB 439 / Away BABIP .298 · K 1083 · BB 359 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.38 · HR9 1.09 / Away K/BB 2.12 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Orioles 3-1 Angels (Aug 4, 2026) Game Recap
- Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- Angels vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 4
- Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction, pick for Wednesday 8/5/26
- Where to watch Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles: TV channel, start time, streaming for Aug. 5
- Pete Alonso hits 2-run single and trade-depleted Orioles beat Angels 3-1
- Orioles 5-2 Angels (6 Aug, 2026) Game Recap
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Baltimore Orioles a 79% chance to win (Home 79% · Away 21%). MLB · 2026-08-07 01:35 KST.
How was the 79.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 79.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.