Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
DTAwayDetroit Tigers47%
@SMHomeSeattle Mariners53%
Model PickSeattle Mariners 53%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Seattle Mariners at 53% — a slight edge. The main drivers are Starting Pitcher Matchup, Home Advantage, offset by Pythagorean Expectation.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 53% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.7
Season Win%+0.1
Home/Away Split+1.6
Team OBP-1.3
Team SLG-2.4
Team ERA-1.7
Team WHIP+0.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+6
Baseline 50% → final home win52.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Seattle Mariners at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.7% (458 RS/461 RA) vs Away 56.5% (515/446) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-59 (.487) vs Away 55-59 (.482) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 5-5 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 33-25 · away team away 25-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .319 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .378 vs Away .410 (OPS .688/.729) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.77 vs Away 3.57 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.19 vs Away 1.21 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Bryce Miller (ERA 2.80) vs Away Framber Valdez (ERA 4.41) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .273 · K 981 · BB 380 / Away BABIP .287 · K 988 · BB 404 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.46 · HR9 1.10 / Away K/BB 2.73 · HR9 0.99 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- Where to watch Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners: TV channel, start time, streaming for Aug. 5
- Benches clear, Speier and Wilson ejected in Mariners’ win over Tigers
- Detroit Tigers keep rolling on road with visit to Seattle Mariners
- New Roster, Who Dis?: Mariners vs. Tigers Series Preview
- Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/05/2026
- Troy Melton runs scoreless streak to 14 innings as Tigers beat Mariners 8-0 for 4th straight win
- Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Seattle Mariners a 53% chance to win (Home 53% · Away 47%). MLB · 2026-08-07 05:10 KST.
How was the 52.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 52.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.