San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres58%
@ADHomeArizona Diamondbacks42%
Model PickSan Diego Padres 58%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors San Diego Padres at 58% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Starting Pitcher Matchup, Last 10 Games Form, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.4
Season Win%+0.1
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split+1.4
Team OBP+0.3
Team SLG+0.6
Team ERA-0.4
Team WHIP+0.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup-9.4
Baseline 50% → final home win42.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Arizona Diamondbacks at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.1% (517 RS/516 RA) vs Away 49.0% (482/493) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 60-54 (.526) vs Away 59-55 (.518) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 8-2 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-23 · away team away 27-30 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .314 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .392 vs Away .384 (OPS .706/.696) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.20 vs Away 4.15 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.32 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Mitch Bratt (ERA 5.23) vs Away Casey Mize (ERA 2.70) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 827 · BB 376 / Away BABIP .281 · K 935 · BB 386 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.34 · HR9 1.19 / Away K/BB 2.34 · HR9 1.15 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Game Highlights
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres Wednesday
- Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks shut down Padres
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Diamondbacks 5-1 Padres (Aug 3, 2026) Game Recap
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego Padres a 58% chance to win (Home 42% · Away 58%). MLB · 2026-08-06 10:40 KST.
How was the 42.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 42.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.