New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
NYMAwayNew York Mets46%
@CGHomeCleveland Guardians54%
Model PickCleveland Guardians 54%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Cleveland Guardians at 54% — a slight edge. The main drivers are Team ERA, Home Advantage, offset by Starting Pitcher Matchup.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 54% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.2
Season Win%+1.4
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+0.9
Team OBP+1.2
Team SLG-0.9
Team ERA+2.9
Team WHIP+0.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup-3
Baseline 50% → final home win54.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Cleveland Guardians at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.0% (448 RS/468 RA) vs Away 45.0% (463/517) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 57-57 (.500) vs Away 48-66 (.421) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 5-5 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 28-29 · away team away 23-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .311 vs Away .303 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .369 vs Away .381 (OPS .680/.684) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.75 vs Away 4.09 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tanner Bibee (ERA 3.81) vs Away Christian Scott (ERA 2.99) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 944 · BB 413 / Away BABIP .274 · K 962 · BB 363 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.84 · HR9 1.13 / Away K/BB 2.57 · HR9 1.10 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for August 4
- Best photos from Cleveland Guardians' series vs. New York Mets
- New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction, pick for Tuesday 8/4/26
- Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets starting lineups for Aug. 4, 2026: Game 114
- New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians: Odds, Spread, and Total
- Luis Torrens hits 3-run homer and drives in 4 to lead Mets past Guardians 6-2
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Cleveland Guardians a 54% chance to win (Home 54% · Away 46%). MLB · 2026-08-06 07:40 KST.
How was the 54.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 54.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.