Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers50%
@CCHomeChicago Cubs50%
Model PickChicago Cubs 50%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Chicago Cubs at 50% — essentially a toss-up. The main drivers are Last 10 Games Form, Starting Pitcher Matchup, offset by Team ERA.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 50% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-1.7
Season Win%-0.6
Last 10 Games Form+3.7
Home/Away Split-0.5
Team SLG-1.1
Team ERA-3.1
Team WHIP-2.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3.1
Baseline 50% → final home win49.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Cubs at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 58.3% (585 RS/487 RA) vs Away 62.5% (578/437) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 65-49 (.570) vs Away 69-45 (.605) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 3-7 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 33-24 · away team away 36-22 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .339 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .415 vs Away .430 (OPS .754/.769) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.06 vs Away 3.71 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.25 vs Away 1.15 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.67) vs Away Eric Lauer (ERA 4.50) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .294 · K 981 · BB 494 / Away BABIP .302 · K 892 · BB 433 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.60 · HR9 1.49 / Away K/BB 2.91 · HR9 1.22 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Cubs 10-5 Dodgers (Aug 3, 2026) Game Recap
- Tarik Skubal pitches 6 effective innings in Dodgers debut against Cubs
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Preview - 08/03/2026
- On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Dodgers series preview
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Preview - 08/05/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Cubs a 50% chance to win (Home 50% · Away 50%). MLB · 2026-08-06 03:20 KST.
How was the 49.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.