Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
DTAwayDetroit Tigers58%
@SMHomeSeattle Mariners42%
Model PickDetroit Tigers 58%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Detroit Tigers at 58% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Pythagorean Expectation, Team SLG, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.9
Season Win%-0.1
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+1.4
Team OBP-1.3
Team SLG-2.6
Team ERA-1.9
Team WHIP+0.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup-1.2
Baseline 50% → final home win41.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Seattle Mariners at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.5% (454 RS/459 RA) vs Away 56.8% (513/442) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 55-59 (.482) vs Away 55-58 (.487) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 6-4 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-25 · away team away 25-31 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .319 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .377 vs Away .412 (OPS .687/.731) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.78 vs Away 3.56 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.19 vs Away 1.21 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Bryan Woo (ERA 4.56) vs Away Drew Anderson (ERA 4.24) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .273 · K 978 · BB 378 / Away BABIP .288 · K 979 · BB 403 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.44 · HR9 1.10 / Away K/BB 2.74 · HR9 0.98 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Preview - 08/04/2026
- New Roster, Who Dis?: Mariners vs. Tigers Series Preview
- Detroit Tigers keep rolling on road with visit to Seattle Mariners
- Tigers head to Seattle to take on Mariners on Tuesday
- GameThread: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m.
- Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Detroit Tigers score: With their 8 runs vs. Seattle, the Tigers did something the franchise hasn't done in nearly 100 years. See link below ⬇️ 📸 Steven Bisig, IMAGN IMAGES
- Tigers 8-0 Mariners (5 Aug, 2026) Final Score
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Detroit Tigers a 58% chance to win (Home 42% · Away 58%). MLB · 2026-08-06 10:40 KST.
How was the 41.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 41.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.