Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
CWSAwayChicago White Sox35%
@BRSHomeBoston Red Sox65%
Model PickBoston Red Sox 65%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Boston Red Sox at 65% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Team ERA, Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 65% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.4
Season Win%+0.3
Last 10 Games Form+3.7
Home/Away Split+0.4
Team OBP+0.1
Team SLG-0.4
Team ERA+4.7
Team WHIP+1.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win64.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Boston Red Sox at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 57.3% (488 RS/416 RA) vs Away 53.8% (533/490) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 61-51 (.545) vs Away 59-53 (.527) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 8-2 vs Away 5-5 · Home W6 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 26-29 · away team away 25-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .317 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .400 vs Away .406 (OPS .717/.722) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.52 vs Away 4.08 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.23 vs Away 1.30 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Sonny Gray (ERA 2.93) vs Away Sean Burke (ERA 3.04) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .294 · K 918 · BB 339 / Away BABIP .284 · K 1010 · BB 377 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.01 · HR9 1.00 / Away K/BB 2.34 · HR9 1.09 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/04/2026
- Red Sox bury White Sox with 14 runs in series opener at Fenway
- White Sox vs. Red Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets on August 4
- Chicago White Sox allow their most runs since opening day in 14-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox
- White Sox vs. Red Sox Lineup: Doyle, Bart Make Debuts? Braden Moves Down, More
- White Sox visit the Red Sox to open 3-game series
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox 8/5/26 - Stream the Game Live
- Durbin hits grand slam and Abreu goes deep twice as streaking Red Sox rout White Sox 14-2
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Boston Red Sox a 65% chance to win (Home 65% · Away 35%). MLB · 2026-08-06 08:10 KST.
How was the 64.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 64.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.