St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
SLCAwaySt. Louis Cardinals31%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees69%
Model PickNew York Yankees 69%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors New York Yankees at 69% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Team ERA, Pythagorean Expectation.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 69% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+3.4
Season Win%+1.1
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split-0.1
Team OBP-0.7
Team SLG+2.5
Team ERA+6.4
Team WHIP+3.3
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win68.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 57.7% (519 RS/438 RA) vs Away 49.1% (496/506) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 63-50 (.558) vs Away 56-57 (.496) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 26-24 · away team away 28-25 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .315 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .414 vs Away .380 (OPS .724/.695) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.37 vs Away 4.16 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.19 vs Away 1.34 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Ryan Weathers (ERA 3.99) vs Away Hunter Dobbins (ERA 3.74) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .274 · K 1031 · BB 409 / Away BABIP .279 · K 872 · BB 365 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.90 · HR9 1.00 / Away K/BB 2.29 · HR9 1.00 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees Preview - 08/03/2026
- St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Game Discussion Monday
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: Game Highlights
- Alec Burleson Crushes 3 Homers as Cardinals Win Slugfest Over NY Yankees
- New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Series Preview
- Where to watch St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees: TV channel, start time, streaming for Aug. 3
- St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Cardinals vs Yankees Prediction, Picks & Odds: Who WIll Win Today's MLB Game
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 69% chance to win (Home 69% · Away 31%). MLB · 2026-08-05 08:05 KST.
How was the 68.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 68.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.