San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres38%
@ADHomeArizona Diamondbacks62%
Model PickArizona Diamondbacks 62%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Arizona Diamondbacks at 62% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Starting Pitcher Matchup, Home Advantage, offset by Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 62% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.8
Season Win%+0.3
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+1.6
Team OBP+0.4
Team SLG+0.7
Team ERA-0.3
Team WHIP+1
Starting Pitcher Matchup+7.2
Baseline 50% → final home win61.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Arizona Diamondbacks at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.5% (513 RS/507 RA) vs Away 48.5% (473/489) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 60-53 (.531) vs Away 58-55 (.513) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 8-2 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-22 · away team away 26-30 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .314 vs Away .311 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .392 vs Away .383 (OPS .706/.694) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.18 vs Away 4.15 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.33 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.48) vs Away Randy Vásquez (ERA 4.45) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 824 · BB 374 / Away BABIP .279 · K 929 · BB 384 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.33 · HR9 1.20 / Away K/BB 2.34 · HR9 1.14 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Diamondbacks 5-1 Padres (Aug 3, 2026) Game Recap
- Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 3
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks face San Diego Padres in 4-game series
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Final Score - August 03, 2026
- Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks shut down Padres
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Arizona Diamondbacks a 62% chance to win (Home 62% · Away 38%). MLB · 2026-08-05 10:40 KST.
How was the 61.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 61.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.