Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
PPAwayPittsburgh Pirates26%
@MBHomeMilwaukee Brewers74%
Model PickMilwaukee Brewers 74%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Milwaukee Brewers at 74% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Team ERA, Pythagorean Expectation, offset by Team SLG.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 74% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+3.9
Season Win%+2
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split+1.7
Team OBP+0.3
Team SLG-1.2
Team ERA+6.5
Team WHIP+3.4
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3.5
Baseline 50% → final home win73.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Milwaukee Brewers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 62.3% (558 RS/424 RA) vs Away 52.5% (582/551) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 69-43 (.616) vs Away 57-57 (.500) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 36-21 · away team away 28-29 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .337 vs Away .335 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .397 vs Away .414 (OPS .734/.749) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.48 vs Away 4.29 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.32 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Logan Henderson (ERA 2.66) vs Away Jared Jones (ERA 3.81) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .306 · K 916 · BB 465 / Away BABIP .318 · K 1076 · BB 414 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.12 · HR9 0.99 / Away K/BB 2.55 · HR9 1.03 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Game Highlights
- Sproat struggles early, Brewers bats can't claw back in 4-3 loss to Pirates
- How to Watch Pirates vs. Brewers: Streaming & TV on Aug. 3
- Pirates build 4-run lead, move to 6-1 vs. Brewers in '26
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates score, lineups, live updates
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Milwaukee Brewers a 74% chance to win (Home 74% · Away 26%). MLB · 2026-08-05 08:40 KST.
How was the 73.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 73.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.