New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
NYMAwayNew York Mets39%
@CGHomeCleveland Guardians61%
Model PickCleveland Guardians 61%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Cleveland Guardians at 61% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Team ERA, Home Advantage, offset by Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 61% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.5
Season Win%+1.5
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+1.1
Team OBP+1
Team SLG-0.7
Team ERA+2.9
Team WHIP+0.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup+1.9
Baseline 50% → final home win61.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Cleveland Guardians at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.4% (446 RS/462 RA) vs Away 44.6% (457/515) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 57-56 (.504) vs Away 47-66 (.416) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 4-6 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 28-28 · away team away 22-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .303 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .370 vs Away .380 (OPS .680/.683) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.76 vs Away 4.10 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.88) vs Away Sean Manaea (ERA 4.42) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .277 · K 936 · BB 405 / Away BABIP .274 · K 953 · BB 360 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.84 · HR9 1.11 / Away K/BB 2.60 · HR9 1.11 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians Preview - 08/04/2026
- Mets vs. Guardians (Aug 4, 2026) Pregame
- New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians - Live Score - August 04, 2026
- Guardians, New York Mets series preview, pitching matchups
- 2026 Guardians Standings and Record: Regular Season | Cleveland Guardians
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians - Live Score - August 05, 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Cleveland Guardians a 61% chance to win (Home 61% · Away 39%). MLB · 2026-08-05 07:40 KST.
How was the 61.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 61.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.