Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers59%
@CCHomeChicago Cubs41%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 59%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Los Angeles Dodgers at 59% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Starting Pitcher Matchup, Team ERA, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 41% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2
Season Win%-0.8
Last 10 Games Form+2.5
Home/Away Split-0.8
Team OBP-0.1
Team SLG-1.3
Team ERA-3.4
Team WHIP-2.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup-3.5
Baseline 50% → final home win40.6%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Cubs at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 58.0% (580 RS/486 RA) vs Away 62.9% (577/432) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 64-49 (.566) vs Away 69-44 (.611) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 4-6 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-24 · away team away 36-21 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .340 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .414 vs Away .432 (OPS .753/.772) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.09 vs Away 3.70 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.25 vs Away 1.15 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Javier Assad (ERA 3.75) vs Away Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.79) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .294 · K 973 · BB 491 / Away BABIP .303 · K 888 · BB 431 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.60 · HR9 1.50 / Away K/BB 2.91 · HR9 1.21 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers – Series Preview (August 3-5): Overview, Game and Broadcast Info, Starting Pitchers, W2W4
- On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Dodgers series preview
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Preview - 08/03/2026
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/03/2026
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 59% chance to win (Home 41% · Away 59%). MLB · 2026-08-05 09:05 KST.
How was the 40.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 40.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.