Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
DTAwayDetroit Tigers55%
@SMHomeSeattle Mariners45%
Model PickDetroit Tigers 55%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Detroit Tigers at 55% — a slight edge. The main drivers are Last 10 Games Form, Pythagorean Expectation, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 45% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.3
Season Win%+0.1
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+1.7
Team OBP-1.2
Team SLG-2.2
Team ERA-1.4
Team WHIP+0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win45.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Seattle Mariners at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.3% (454 RS/451 RA) vs Away 56.1% (505/442) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 55-58 (.487) vs Away 54-58 (.482) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 6-4 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-24 · away team away 24-31 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .310 vs Away .318 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .379 vs Away .409 (OPS .689/.727) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.75 vs Away 3.59 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.19 vs Away 1.21 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Emerson Hancock (ERA 3.26) vs Away TBD (ERA ?) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .274 · K 970 · BB 374 / Away BABIP .287 · K 968 · BB 398 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.47 · HR9 1.08 / Away K/BB 2.75 · HR9 0.99 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Preview - 08/04/2026
- Seattle Mariners - Detroit Tigers
- Where to watch Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners: TV channel, start time, streaming for Aug. 4
- Young leads Mariners against the Tigers after 4-hit game
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
- Mariners News: Luis Castillo, Tarik Skubal, and Camilo Doval
- Tigers, Mariners resume playoff push after deadline maneuvering
- What Direction Will the Tigers Pick at the Trade Deadline?
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Detroit Tigers a 55% chance to win (Home 45% · Away 55%). MLB · 2026-08-05 10:40 KST.
How was the 45.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 45.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.