Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
CWSAwayChicago White Sox37%
@BRSHomeBoston Red Sox63%
Model PickBoston Red Sox 63%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Boston Red Sox at 63% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Team ERA, Last 10 Games Form.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 63% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.5
Season Win%+0.2
Last 10 Games Form+3.7
Home/Away Split+0.2
Team SLG-0.9
Team ERA+4
Team WHIP+1.4
Starting Pitcher Matchup+1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win62.6%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Boston Red Sox at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 56.2% (474 RS/414 RA) vs Away 55.0% (531/476) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 60-51 (.541) vs Away 59-52 (.532) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 8-2 vs Away 5-5 · Home W5 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 25-29 · away team away 25-31 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .316 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .396 vs Away .408 (OPS .712/.724) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.53 vs Away 4.00 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.23 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Patrick Sandoval (ERA 3.32) vs Away Davis Martin (ERA 3.62) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .293 · K 916 · BB 336 / Away BABIP .285 · K 1002 · BB 372 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.03 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.35 · HR9 1.07 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Recap: White Sox acquire Brenton Doyle, Joey Bart at MLB trade deadline
- Where to watch Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox: TV channel, start time, streaming for Aug. 4
- Soaring Red Sox bring new additions into White Sox series
- MLB trade deadline grades for all 30 teams: Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox earn high marks
- White Sox acquire righty Castillo from Mariners in 4-player trade
- Last Night In Baseball: Yankees Let White Sox Literally Walk Them Off
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
- Yankees Rivalry Roundup: White Sox crush Tampa; Yordan Alvarez continues to mash
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Boston Red Sox a 63% chance to win (Home 63% · Away 37%). MLB · 2026-08-05 08:10 KST.
How was the 62.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 62.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.