New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs
NYYAwayNew York Yankees56%
@CCHomeChicago Cubs44%
Model PickNew York Yankees 56%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 56% win probability, higher than the Chicago Cubs' 44%. The Yankees show a positive delta in 'Team OBP' but face disadvantages in 'Team ERA', 'Team WHIP', and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup'. The market edge for this game is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 44% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-0.2
Season Win%+0.2
Home/Away Split-0.1
Team OBP+4.2
Team SLG+0.1
Team ERA-7
Team WHIP-2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-4.1
Baseline 50% → final home win43.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Cubs at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 57.8% (569 RS/479 RA) vs Away 58.4% (510/424) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 63-48 (.568) vs Away 62-49 (.559) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 6-4 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 31-23 · away team away 36-26 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .311 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .413 vs Away .412 (OPS .752/.723) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.11 vs Away 3.30 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Colin Rea (ERA 4.67) vs Away Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.57) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .294 · K 953 · BB 478 / Away BABIP .276 · K 1013 · BB 407 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.58 · HR9 1.50 / Away K/BB 2.95 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Suzuki's Potential Absence
Key Cubs hitter Seiya Suzuki might be out of the lineup, which could significantly impact the team's offensive production.
Basis: LLM · news · Seiya Suzuki Sitting?
Qualitative · Prospect Jumps Up
Cubs prospect Pedro Ramirez is moving up in the lineup, potentially injecting new energy, but his lack of big-game experience could be a wild card.
Basis: LLM · news · Pedro Ramirez Jumps Up
Qualitative · Yankees' Winning Streak
The Yankees are on a winning streak, having just beaten the Cubs 2-0, suggesting high team morale and momentum.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees 2, Cubs 0
Qualitative · Imanaga's Solo Homers
Cubs starter Shota Imanaga gave up two solo homers in his last outing, showing some vulnerability that could carry over into this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Shōta Imanaga allows a pair of solo homers
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/31/2026
- Yankees 2, Cubs 0: Shōta Imanaga allows a pair of solo homers…
- New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs: Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga
- Yankees vs Cubs start time today, how to watch and prediction
- Cubs vs. Yankees Lineup: Seiya Suzuki Sitting? Pedro Ramirez Jumps Up, More
- New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 08/01/2026
- What channel are the Yankees on tonight? What channel are the Cubs on?
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: Series Preview
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 56% chance to win (Home 44% · Away 56%). MLB · 2026-08-03 03:20 KST.
How was the 43.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 43.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.