Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
MMAwayMiami Marlins60%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets40%
Model PickMiami Marlins 60%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
The model favors Miami Marlins at 60% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Team OBP, Pythagorean Expectation, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Miami Marlins vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 40% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.5
Season Win%-1.6
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+0.2
Team OBP-3.3
Team SLG-2
Team ERA-0.8
Team WHIP-1
Baseline 50% → final home win40.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 44.7% (457 RS/513 RA) vs Away 51.0% (494/483) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 47-65 (.420) vs Away 57-55 (.509) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 25-33 · away team away 23-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .304 vs Away .326 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .381 vs Away .408 (OPS .685/.734) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.12 vs Away 4.03 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.25 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Robert Stock (ERA ?) vs Away Sandy Alcantara (ERA 3.82) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .275 · K 945 · BB 355 / Away BABIP .299 · K 911 · BB 375 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.59 · HR9 1.11 / Away K/BB 2.49 · HR9 1.02 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Series Decider Momentum
The Miami Marlins, thanks to Janson Junk and their bullpen, have evened the series against the New York Mets, making this final game a crucial momentum swing.
Basis: LLM · news · Janson Junk, bullpen help Miami Marlins even serie
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/31/2026
- Mets 4-2 Marlins (Jul 30, 2026) Game Recap
- Where to watch Marlins vs. Mets today: MLB free live stream
- Janson Junk, bullpen help Miami Marlins even series against New York Mets
- Where to watch Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 30
- Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/30/2026
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: Game Highlights
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Miami Marlins a 60% chance to win (Home 40% · Away 60%). MLB · 2026-08-03 02:40 KST.
How was the 40.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 40.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.