New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs
NYYAwayNew York Yankees63%
@CCHomeChicago Cubs37%
Model PickNew York Yankees 63%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 63% win probability, favoring them against the Chicago Cubs. This projection is primarily driven by the Yankees' superior 'Team OBP,' though the Cubs' advantage in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' presents a key swing risk. The edge against the market is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 37% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-0.4
Home/Away Split-0.3
Team OBP+4.2
Team ERA-7.4
Team WHIP-2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-9.3
Baseline 50% → final home win37.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Cubs at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 57.6% (564 RS/477 RA) vs Away 58.7% (508/419) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 62-48 (.564) vs Away 62-48 (.564) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 6-4 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 30-23 · away team away 36-25 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .311 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .413 vs Away .413 (OPS .752/.724) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.13 vs Away 3.28 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home David Peterson (ERA 5.80) vs Away Max Fried (ERA 3.23) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .294 · K 946 · BB 473 / Away BABIP .276 · K 1004 · BB 405 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.56 · HR9 1.50 / Away K/BB 2.97 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Suzuki's Potential Absence
Key Cubs hitter Seiya Suzuki might be out of the lineup, potentially impacting the team's offensive production.
Basis: LLM · news · Seiya Suzuki Sitting?
Qualitative · Ramirez's Lineup Bump
Pedro Ramirez is moving up in the Chicago Cubs' lineup, indicating a potential shift in the team's offensive strategy.
Basis: LLM · news · Pedro Ramirez Jumps Up
Qualitative · Yankees Pitching Dominance
The Yankees' starting pitcher delivered a shutout performance against the Cubs in the previous game, which could boost team morale and pitching staff confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees 2, Cubs 0: Shōta Imanaga allows a pair of
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/31/2026
- Yankees 2, Cubs 0: Shōta Imanaga allows a pair of solo homers…
- New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs: Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga
- Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees – Series Preview (July 31-August 2): Overview, Game and Broadcast Info, Starting Pitchers, W2W4
- Yankees vs. Cubs (Aug 1, 2026) Pregame
- Cubs vs. Yankees Lineup: Seiya Suzuki Sitting? Pedro Ramirez Jumps Up, More
- How to watch Yankees vs. Cubs: TV channel and streaming options for July 31
- Where to watch Yankees vs. Cubs today: MLB free live stream
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 63% chance to win (Home 37% · Away 63%). MLB · 2026-08-02 08:15 KST.
How was the 37.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 37.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.