Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
MMAwayMiami Marlins52%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets48%
Model PickMiami Marlins 52%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the Miami Marlins with a 52% win probability, giving them a slight edge over the New York Mets (48%). This projection is primarily driven by the Marlins' 4.1% positive delta in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup'. However, the Mets' superior 'Team OBP' and 'Team SLG' could be key swing factors in the game. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Miami Marlins vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 48% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.2
Season Win%-1.4
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split+0.4
Team OBP-3.3
Team SLG-1.9
Team ERA-0.5
Team WHIP-1
Starting Pitcher Matchup+4.1
Baseline 50% → final home win47.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 45.1% (455 RS/507 RA) vs Away 50.7% (488/481) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 47-64 (.423) vs Away 56-55 (.505) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 25-32 · away team away 22-32 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .304 vs Away .326 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .381 vs Away .407 (OPS .685/.733) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.11 vs Away 4.05 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.25 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Zac Thornton (ERA 2.43) vs Away Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.52) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .275 · K 940 · BB 355 / Away BABIP .299 · K 905 · BB 370 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.61 · HR9 1.10 / Away K/BB 2.48 · HR9 1.02 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rubber Match
This is the decisive rubber match of a three-game series, meaning both teams will likely pull out all the stops to secure the series win.
Basis: LLM · news · Marlins at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highli
Qualitative · Momentum from Previous Win
The Miami Marlins are coming off a 5-2 victory against the New York Mets yesterday, carrying positive momentum into today's game.
Basis: LLM · news · Marlins 5-2 Mets (Jul 31, 2026) Game Recap
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/30/2026
- Mets 4-2 Marlins (Jul 30, 2026) Game Recap
- Where to watch Marlins vs. Mets today: MLB free live stream
- Where to watch Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 30
- Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: Game Highlights
- Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/31/2026
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: Game Highlights
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Miami Marlins a 52% chance to win (Home 48% · Away 52%). MLB · 2026-08-02 05:10 KST.
How was the 47.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 47.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.