New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs
NYYAwayNew York Yankees50%
@CCHomeChicago Cubs50%
Model PickChicago Cubs 50%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a win for the Chicago Cubs, with both teams having an equal 50% win probability. This pick is primarily driven by the Cubs' advantages in 'Team OBP' (deltaPct 4.2) and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' (deltaPct 2.6). However, the New York Yankees' superior 'Team ERA' (deltaPct -7.3) and 'Team WHIP' (deltaPct -2) present a key swing risk. The edge against the market is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 50% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-0.3
Season Win%+0.2
Home/Away Split-0.1
Team OBP+4.2
Team SLG+0.1
Team ERA-7.3
Team WHIP-2
Starting Pitcher Matchup+2.6
Baseline 50% → final home win49.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago Cubs at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 57.8% (564 RS/475 RA) vs Away 58.5% (506/419) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 62-47 (.569) vs Away 61-48 (.560) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 6-4 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 30-22 · away team away 35-25 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .340 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .415 vs Away .413 (OPS .755/.725) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.15 vs Away 3.31 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.72) vs Away Will Warren (ERA 4.41) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .295 · K 936 · BB 473 / Away BABIP .277 · K 996 · BB 402 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.56 · HR9 1.50 / Away K/BB 2.94 · HR9 0.98 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Trade Deadline Acquisition
The Yankees have signed an 8-year veteran amidst the trade deadline chaos, bolstering their depth. This move could provide an immediate boost and strengthen the team's roster.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees' Sneaky Signing During Trade Deadline Chao
Qualitative · Former Yankee Cut by Cubs
The Chicago Cubs unexpectedly cut a former New York Yankees playoff starter. This move could impact the Cubs' clubhouse morale or roster dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · Former New York Yankees Playoff Starter Unexpected
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Yankees vs. Cubs (Jul 31, 2026) Pregame
- Former New York Yankees Playoff Starter Unexpectedly Cut By Chicago Cubs
- MLB World Reacts To New York Yankees Signing 8-Year Veteran
- Watch MLB - New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs - 08/01/2026
- Where to watch New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 31
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs - Live Score - July 31, 2026
- New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | July 31, 2026 | MLB Matchup
- Cubs vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under for July 31
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Cubs a 50% chance to win (Home 50% · Away 50%). MLB · 2026-08-01 03:20 KST.
How was the 49.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.