Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SMAwaySeattle Mariners26%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers74%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 74%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 74% win probability for the Los Angeles Dodgers, indicating a significant advantage over the Seattle Mariners. This forecast is primarily driven by the Dodgers' superior 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Team OBP,' though the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' slightly favors the Mariners. Currently, the market edge for this game is not calculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 74% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+5.5
Season Win%+2.4
Last 10 Games Form+2.4
Home/Away Split+2.4
Team OBP+4.2
Team SLG+3.3
Team ERA+0.8
Team WHIP+1.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-1
Baseline 50% → final home win73.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 64.6% (556 RS/400 RA) vs Away 50.7% (438/431) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 68-40 (.630) vs Away 53-56 (.486) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 4-6 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-20 · away team away 23-33 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .341 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .433 vs Away .379 (OPS .774/.688) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.59 vs Away 3.71 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.13 vs Away 1.19 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Roki Sasaki (ERA 4.71) vs Away Bryan Woo (ERA 4.37) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .302 · K 851 · BB 419 / Away BABIP .273 · K 932 · BB 352 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.98 · HR9 1.16 / Away K/BB 3.45 · HR9 1.03 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Star Hitter Lineup Change
Mookie Betts, a key Dodgers player, has been dropped from the lineup, potentially causing an unexpected shift in the team's offensive dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · Mookie Betts Dropped
Qualitative · Roster Shake-Up
The Dodgers cutting a two-year MLB player could subtly impact team morale or roster dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers Cut 2-Year MLB Player
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview - 07/28/2026
- Mariners 7-6 Dodgers (Jul 28, 2026) Game Recap
- The Frying Pan: Mariners at Dodgers Series Preview
- Los Angeles Dodgers Cut 2-Year MLB Player Before Mariners Game
- Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/28/2026
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Game Highlights
- Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/29/2026
- Mariners vs. Dodgers (Jul 30, 2026) Pregame
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 74% chance to win (Home 74% · Away 26%). MLB · 2026-07-31 11:10 KST.
How was the 73.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 73.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.