New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
NYYAwayNew York Yankees58%
@CWSHomeChicago White Sox42%
Model PickNew York Yankees 58%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 58% win probability, favoring them over the Chicago White Sox. This prediction is primarily driven by the Yankees' 3.8% positive delta in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and the White Sox's significant -6.3% disadvantage in 'Team ERA'. However, the Yankees' recent 'Last 10 Games Form' showing a -2.5% negative delta presents a key swing risk for the game. The market edge is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-1.9
Season Win%-0.7
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+0.2
Team OBP+0.7
Team SLG-0.5
Team ERA-6.3
Team WHIP-2.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3.8
Baseline 50% → final home win42.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Chicago White Sox at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 53.9% (514 RS/472 RA) vs Away 58.7% (505/417) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-51 (.523) vs Away 61-47 (.565) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 7-3 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 33-21 · away team away 35-24 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .317 vs Away .312 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .408 vs Away .415 (OPS .725/.727) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.13 vs Away 3.40 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Sean Burke (ERA 3.19) vs Away Ryan Weathers (ERA 4.25) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .286 · K 961 · BB 361 / Away BABIP .277 · K 984 · BB 398 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.31 · HR9 1.09 / Away K/BB 2.96 · HR9 0.99 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Star Player Position Change
The New York Yankees announced a position change for Jazz Chisholm Jr. during the White Sox series. This could impact team strategy and the player's individual performance.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Yankees Announce Jazz Chisholm Jr. Change
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/28/2026
- Yankees 3-2 White Sox (Jul 28, 2026) Game Recap
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: Series Preview
- What channel are the Yankees on tonight? What channel are the White Sox on?
- Where to watch New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 28
- Where to watch New York Yankees-Chicago White Sox MLB game for free today
- How to watch Yankees vs. White Sox: TV channel and streaming options for July 27
- New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/29/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 58% chance to win (Home 42% · Away 58%). MLB · 2026-07-31 03:10 KST.
How was the 42.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 42.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.