Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
CCAwayChicago Cubs70%
@SLCHomeSt. Louis Cardinals30%
Model PickChicago Cubs 70%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Chicago Cubs at 70% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Last 10 Games Form, Team OBP, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-3.6
Season Win%-1.3
Last 10 Games Form-6.2
Home/Away Split-1.2
Team OBP-3.7
Team SLG-2.5
Team ERA-0.1
Team WHIP-1.8
Starting Pitcher Matchup-2.5
Baseline 50% → final home win29.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | St. Louis Cardinals at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.8% (471 RS/484 RA) vs Away 57.8% (558/470) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 53-54 (.495) vs Away 61-46 (.570) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 2-8 vs Away 7-3 · Home L3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 27-31 · away team away 31-24 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .315 vs Away .341 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .380 vs Away .417 (OPS .695/.758) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.21 vs Away 4.20 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.35 vs Away 1.27 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Dustin May (ERA 4.59) vs Away Matthew Boyd (ERA 3.81) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 819 · BB 343 / Away BABIP .296 · K 923 · BB 463 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.30 · HR9 1.00 / Away K/BB 2.55 · HR9 1.52 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/28/2026
- Cubs 7-3 Cardinals (Jul 27, 2026) Game Recap
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/27/2026
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Preview - 07/27/2026
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Preview - 07/28/2026
- Cubs vs. Cardinals: How to Watch, Rain Delay — Wainwright on the WBC
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals preview, Monday 7/27, 6:45 CT
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Preview - 07/29/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Cubs a 70% chance to win (Home 30% · Away 70%). MLB · 2026-07-30 08:45 KST.
How was the 29.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 29.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.