Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
PPAwayPhiladelphia Phillies52%
@MMHomeMiami Marlins48%
Model PickPhiladelphia Phillies 52%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 52% win probability for the Philadelphia Phillies, giving them a slight edge over the Miami Marlins (48%). The Phillies show a positive delta in 'Team OBP,' but significant weaknesses in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Last 10 Games Form' present key risks for this game. The market edge is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 48% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.5
Season Win%-0.8
Last 10 Games Form-5
Home/Away Split+0.1
Team OBP+3.3
Team SLG+0.2
Team ERA+1
Team WHIP+1
Starting Pitcher Matchup-5.1
Baseline 50% → final home win47.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Miami Marlins at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.2% (464 RS/462 RA) vs Away 48.9% (460/471) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 52-54 (.491) vs Away 57-49 (.538) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 0-10 vs Away 4-6 · Home L12 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 31-23 · away team away 29-22 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .325 vs Away .303 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .404 vs Away .401 (OPS .729/.704) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.09 vs Away 4.21 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.30 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.52) vs Away Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.16) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .299 · K 869 · BB 353 / Away BABIP .281 · K 943 · BB 309 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.45 · HR9 1.04 / Away K/BB 3.39 · HR9 1.23 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Marlins vs. Phillies (Aug 17, 2026) Live Score
- Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Preview - 07/27/2026
- Where to watch Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 27
- What channel are the Phillies on tonight? What channel are the Marlins on?
- Philadelphia Phillies Add 29-Year-Old Catcher Before Yankees Series
- Jimmy Rollins 11 Best Moments With The Phillies
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Series July 27-29: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions
- Phillies' Top Priority at MLB Trade Deadline is Abundantly Clear
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Phillies a 52% chance to win (Home 48% · Away 52%). MLB · 2026-07-28 07:40 KST.
How was the 47.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 47.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.