New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
NYYAwayNew York Yankees66%
@PPHomePhiladelphia Phillies34%
Model PickNew York Yankees 66%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 66% win probability, favoring them over the Philadelphia Phillies at 34%. This projection is primarily driven by the Yankees' significant 7.1 percentage point advantage in 'Team ERA' and a 4.4 percentage point edge in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup'. However, the Phillies' 4.5 percentage point lead in 'Pythagorean Expectation' presents a potential risk for the Yankees. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 34% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.5
Season Win%-0.6
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split-1.2
Team OBP-1.7
Team SLG-1.4
Team ERA-7.1
Team WHIP-2.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup+4.4
Baseline 50% → final home win34.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Phillies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.2% (449 RS/467 RA) vs Away 59.4% (484/393) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-49 (.533) vs Away 59-45 (.567) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 7-3 · Home L4 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 27-27 · away team away 33-22 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .301 vs Away .313 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .399 vs Away .418 (OPS .700/.731) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.21 vs Away 3.33 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.65) vs Away Will Warren (ERA 4.00) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 933 · BB 304 / Away BABIP .276 · K 940 · BB 384 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.39 · HR9 1.24 / Away K/BB 2.97 · HR9 0.99 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Yankees' Winning Streak
The Yankees are on a two-game winning streak against the Phillies, which could positively impact team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees 1-0 Phillies (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score, Y
Qualitative · Phillies' Losing Skid
The Phillies have lost two straight to the Yankees, potentially dampening team spirits. There could be added pressure to snap the losing streak at home.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees 1-0 Phillies (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score, Y
Qualitative · Facing Series Sweep
The Phillies are on the verge of being swept at home by the Yankees, which could create significant psychological pressure on the players.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees 1-0 Phillies (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score, Y
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/24/2026
- Yankees 1-0 Phillies (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score
- New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies: Cam Schlittler vs. Jesús Luzardo
- Where to watch New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 25
- New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Spread, and Totals
- How to watch Yankees vs. Phillies: TV channel and streaming options for July 24
- How to watch the New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Live stream info, schedule, preview
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Series Preview
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 66% chance to win (Home 34% · Away 66%). MLB · 2026-07-27 08:20 KST.
How was the 34.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 34.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.