Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers81%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets19%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 81%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects an 81% win probability for the Los Angeles Dodgers, significantly favoring them over the New York Mets at 19%. This forecast is primarily driven by the Dodgers' superior 'Pythagorean Expectation' (-8.8 deltaPct) and 'Team OBP' (-4.9 deltaPct). However, 'Home Advantage' (2.5 deltaPct) presents a key swing risk that could benefit the Mets. The market edge for this game is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 19% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-8.8
Season Win%-3.9
Last 10 Games Form-3.5
Home/Away Split-2.8
Team OBP-4.9
Team SLG-3
Team ERA-4.3
Team WHIP-2.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.3
Baseline 50% → final home win18.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 43.3% (424 RS/491 RA) vs Away 65.4% (543/383) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 43-62 (.410) vs Away 67-38 (.638) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 6-4 · Home L3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 21-30 · away team away 36-19 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .303 vs Away .341 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .381 vs Away .432 (OPS .684/.773) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.21 vs Away 3.53 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.13 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Freddy Peralta (ERA 5.01) vs Away Emmet Sheehan (ERA 5.13) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .274 · K 883 · BB 332 / Away BABIP .301 · K 830 · BB 413 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.55 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 2.99 · HR9 1.12 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Ohtani Injury Update
The Dodgers announced an injury update for Shohei Ohtani during the Mets series, which could impact team morale and overall performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Shohei Ohtani Injury Update During Mets Series
Qualitative · Lineup Shake-Up
The Dodgers dropped Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez from the lineup, which could significantly alter their offensive strategy and hitting rhythm.
Basis: LLM · news · Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez Dropped
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/24/2026
- Dodgers 4-2 Mets (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score
- Where to watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 24
- Los Angeles Dodgers Announce Shohei Ohtani Injury Update During Mets Series
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Dodgers Lineup vs Mets: Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez Dropped
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets - Final Score - July 25, 2026
- Dodgers 4-2 Mets (Jul 24, 2026) Game Recap
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 81% chance to win (Home 19% · Away 81%). MLB · 2026-07-27 02:40 KST.
How was the 18.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 18.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.