New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
NYYAwayNew York Yankees70%
@PPHomePhiladelphia Phillies30%
Model PickNew York Yankees 70%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 70% win probability, significantly favoring them over the Philadelphia Phillies at 30%. This projection is primarily driven by the Yankees' dominant 'Team ERA' (deltaPct -7.1) and strong 'Last 10 Games Form' (deltaPct -3.7). However, the 'Pythagorean Expectation' (deltaPct -4.3) presents a notable risk factor for the Yankees. The market edge for this pick is currently undetermined.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.3
Season Win%-0.4
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split-1
Team OBP-1.8
Team SLG-1.3
Team ERA-7.1
Team WHIP-2.8
Baseline 50% → final home win30%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Phillies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.4% (448 RS/464 RA) vs Away 59.3% (481/392) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-48 (.538) vs Away 58-45 (.563) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 7-3 · Home L3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 27-26 · away team away 32-22 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .302 vs Away .314 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .400 vs Away .418 (OPS .702/.732) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.23 vs Away 3.35 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home TBD (ERA ?) vs Away Ryan Weathers (ERA 4.40) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 926 · BB 302 / Away BABIP .276 · K 929 · BB 383 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.36 · HR9 1.23 / Away K/BB 2.97 · HR9 1.00 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Goldschmidt Impact
The New York Yankees announced an intriguing decision to acquire Paul Goldschmidt before their game against the Philadelphia Phillies, which could significantly alter their offensive dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Yankees Announce Intriguing Paul Goldschm
Qualitative · Phillies Pitcher TBD
The Philadelphia Phillies' starting pitcher is still unannounced, leaving the Yankees to prepare without knowing their opponent's arm. This could give the Phillies a tactical advantage.
Basis: LLM · news · Ryan Weathers vs ?
Qualitative · Phillies' Batting Slump
The Philadelphia Phillies' offense was shut down by Yankees' Cam Schlittler yesterday, wasting a gem from Jesús Luzardo. This could negatively impact team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Phillies blown away by Yankees' Cam Schlittler, wa
Qualitative · Schlittler's Strong Outing
New York Yankees' Cam Schlittler delivered a dominant pitching performance against the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday, which could boost the team's overall confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees 1-0 Phillies (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/24/2026
- Yankees 1-0 Phillies (Jul 24, 2026) Final Score
- New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies: Cam Schlittler vs. Jesús Luzardo
- New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Spread, and Totals
- How to watch Yankees vs. Phillies: TV channel and streaming options for July 24
- How to watch the New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Live stream info, schedule, preview
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Series Preview
- How to watch tonight’s Yankees vs. Phillies game for free on Apple TV
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 70% chance to win (Home 30% · Away 70%). MLB · 2026-07-26 07:05 KST.
How was the 30% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 30%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.