Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers82%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets18%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 82%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model predicts an 82% probability of a Los Angeles Dodgers victory, significantly higher than the New York Mets' 18%. This forecast is primarily driven by the Dodgers' superior 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Team OBP'. With no market edge calculated, it's unclear if this pick offers value against current market odds.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 18% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-8.8
Season Win%-3.8
Last 10 Games Form-2.4
Home/Away Split-2.6
Team OBP-5
Team SLG-3
Team ERA-4.5
Team WHIP-3
Starting Pitcher Matchup-1.3
Baseline 50% → final home win18.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 43.4% (421 RS/487 RA) vs Away 65.5% (539/380) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 43-61 (.413) vs Away 66-38 (.635) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 5-5 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 21-29 · away team away 35-19 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .303 vs Away .341 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .383 vs Away .433 (OPS .686/.774) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.23 vs Away 3.53 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.13 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Nolan McLean (ERA 3.34) vs Away Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.78) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .274 · K 872 · BB 326 / Away BABIP .301 · K 821 · BB 411 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.53 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 3.01 · HR9 1.14 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Ohtani's Return Looms
Shohei Ohtani might throw another bullpen session on Saturday, signaling his potential return to the rotation, though the Dodgers state they won't rush him back.
Basis: LLM · news · Ohtani could throw another bullpen Saturday, but R
Qualitative · Dodgers Eye Mets Pitcher
The Dodgers are reportedly interested in acquiring an All-Star Mets pitcher ahead of the trade deadline, which could add an interesting dynamic to the series.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers Connected to All-Star Mets Pitcher in Pote
Qualitative · Sasaki's Strong Outing
Roki Sasaki pitched 7 strong innings in the previous game, leading the Dodgers to a win over the Mets, which could boost team morale and momentum.
Basis: LLM · news · Roki Sasaki fires 7 strong innings as Dodgers down
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/24/2026
- Where to watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 24
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Ohtani could throw another bullpen Saturday, but Roberts says Dodgers won't rush return to rotation
- How to watch the Dodgers-Mets game today: MLB free live stream
- Dodgers vs. Mets (Jul 24, 2026) Pregame
- How to live stream Dodgers vs Mets: MLB, TV channel
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets - Final Score - July 24, 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 82% chance to win (Home 18% · Away 82%). MLB · 2026-07-26 08:15 KST.
How was the 18.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 18.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.